警惕！這個(gè)中東大國(guó)通脹直奔全球第一！常見(jiàn)外貿(mào)騙局甚至以國(guó)名為代號(hào)！-ESG跨境

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輕松外貿(mào)

學(xué)習(xí)外貿(mào)知識(shí)，掌握外貿(mào)技巧，解決外貿(mào)問(wèn)題，尋找外貿(mào)伙伴就來(lái)「輕松外貿(mào)」，輕松外貿(mào)，讓外貿(mào)輕松起來(lái)！

公眾號(hào)

來(lái)說(shuō)說(shuō)臭名昭著的“土耳其騙局”！

這段時(shí)間說(shuō)起全球通脹最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家，土耳其一定有姓名。

俄烏沖突爆發(fā)后，不斷推高全球能源和原材料價(jià)格，而土耳其的資源主要依賴進(jìn)口，這回真是遭了殃。

6月，土耳其通脹率逼近80%，位居全球第一，達(dá)到1998年以來(lái)的最高水平

；消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)則降至63.4，創(chuàng)下這一數(shù)據(jù)有記錄以來(lái)的最低水平。

德意志銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在最近的一份報(bào)告中表示：

“土耳其通脹率正處于螺旋式上升?！?/p>

目前土耳其食品等其他必需品價(jià)格直線上漲，許多人甚至已經(jīng)吃不起肉了。

“土豪”才能吃上肉！

在過(guò)去一年里，土耳其食品價(jià)格翻了近一番，通脹率達(dá)到93.9%。

現(xiàn)在只有土耳其的“豪門(mén)”才能吃得起肉了，以土耳其人喜愛(ài)的碎牛肉為例，

在過(guò)去8個(gè)月里，它的價(jià)格漲幅達(dá)到了100%，其他肉類價(jià)格也經(jīng)歷了類似漲幅。

隨著肉價(jià)上漲，對(duì)于土耳其普通老百姓來(lái)說(shuō)，肉類食品正從他們的餐桌上消失。土耳其一個(gè)四口之家的平均每年的牛羊肉消費(fèi)量從2017年的56公斤減少到如今的28公斤，五年里消費(fèi)量經(jīng)歷了“腰斬”。

土耳其首都安卡拉市民梅爾耶姆這樣說(shuō)：

“現(xiàn)在我沒(méi)法每個(gè)月買肉，坦白說(shuō)，我?guī)讉€(gè)月才買一次肉。我把肉分成五份，每頓一份?！?/p>

土耳其肉類產(chǎn)業(yè)和生產(chǎn)者協(xié)會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)于杰桑說(shuō)，與疫情前相比，土耳其人均牛羊肉消費(fèi)量下降了41%。對(duì)土耳其人來(lái)說(shuō)，吃肉漸漸成為一件奢侈的事情。據(jù)了解，土耳其約有三分之一的民眾依靠最低工資生活，但是最低工資能夠買到的肉越來(lái)越少。

土耳其總統(tǒng)埃爾多安呼吁民眾保持耐心，并在近期表示，

明年2月至3月，通脹將放緩至“合理”水平

。不知道土耳其人有沒(méi)有被安慰到。

匯率貶值48%！

敢想嗎？

里拉兌美元匯率在過(guò)去12個(gè)月下跌了48%，而土耳其外債總額與外匯儲(chǔ)備比值高達(dá)732%，在新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家中債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高。

8月1日，土耳其里拉對(duì)美元匯率已經(jīng)達(dá)到了17.95:1，創(chuàng)下近8個(gè)月來(lái)最低水平，距離去年12月20日的18也僅有一步之遙。

這主要是由于去年9月該國(guó)央行開(kāi)始“不走尋常路”，通過(guò)多次大幅降息來(lái)對(duì)抗高通脹。土耳其經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家穆拉特·薩曼說(shuō)，

里拉貶值將引發(fā)更嚴(yán)重的通脹，大宗商品價(jià)格將繼續(xù)上漲。

當(dāng)?shù)厝吮硎荆?/p>

“如果你的錢(qián)是土耳其里拉，你就把你的錢(qián)換成美元、歐元、黃金，或者買房買車，而不是把土耳其里拉留在手里?！?/p>

為了抵御通脹，二手汽車竟成為土耳其人資產(chǎn)保值的“硬通貨”。有土耳其二手車買家表示，

買二手車是為了投資，1到2個(gè)小時(shí)之后，甚至可以漲價(jià)20%。

本幣嚴(yán)重貶值，使得土耳其民眾購(gòu)買力下降，進(jìn)口商成本增加、采購(gòu)意愿降低。而埃爾多安曾多次呼吁用本幣里拉進(jìn)行貿(mào)易以支撐其匯率，該國(guó)央行希望通過(guò)采取鼓勵(lì)去美元化的措施來(lái)抑制物價(jià)增長(zhǎng)。

目前土耳其的情況利于出口，而不利于進(jìn)口。

土耳其被歐洲媒體稱為“歐洲的工廠”，惠譽(yù)國(guó)際信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)在其最新的分析報(bào)告中證實(shí)，土耳其將是從歐洲供應(yīng)鏈轉(zhuǎn)型中受益最大的國(guó)家。

得益于政府為出口商提供的廉價(jià)貸款和里拉貶值，土耳其以約35億美元的出口額實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)美國(guó)史上最高的第一季度出口。

而對(duì)于土耳其進(jìn)口商而言，一季度下的采購(gòu)訂單，到了二季度交貨時(shí)，利潤(rùn)平白少了十幾個(gè)點(diǎn)，誰(shuí)能接受這樣的匯兌損失？在這種情況下，有些進(jìn)口商會(huì)不會(huì)鋌而走險(xiǎn)、拖欠貨款？

謹(jǐn)防“土耳其騙局”！

根據(jù)土耳其商會(huì)和商品交易所聯(lián)盟公布的數(shù)據(jù)，今年前5個(gè)月，土耳其約7500多家企業(yè)倒閉。

其中僅5月就多達(dá)2000家企業(yè)倒閉，較去年同期增加了259.7%。

分析指出，6月這一數(shù)據(jù)恐怕會(huì)更高。

當(dāng)前土耳其經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣，

外貿(mào)人需要提防著名的“土耳其騙局”

。（其他7個(gè)經(jīng)典騙局，請(qǐng)見(jiàn)這里：

做外貿(mào)，注意防范這8個(gè)經(jīng)典騙局！

）

這種騙局之所以能冠上“土耳其”的名字，主要是由于它來(lái)源于土耳其海關(guān)的漏洞：

在船只到達(dá)土耳其港口前，貨代即需要將貨物登記在收貨人名下，將來(lái)如有任何變更，均需獲得原收貨人的書(shū)面同意。這樣的規(guī)定所產(chǎn)生的直接結(jié)果，就是

所有權(quán)在貨物實(shí)際交付前已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移至收貨人，而不論收貨人是否完成了其在貿(mào)易合同中的各項(xiàng)義務(wù)。

貨物到港后進(jìn)口商應(yīng)在45天內(nèi)完成提貨手續(xù)，否則貨物將被罰沒(méi)（confiscate）并進(jìn)行拍賣。不過(guò)45天屆滿后，收貨人（買方）有兩次申請(qǐng)延期的機(jī)會(huì)，每次30天，且不需要提交延期理由。此后，收貨人還有一個(gè)申請(qǐng)延期30天提貨的機(jī)會(huì)，但需向海關(guān)解釋延期原因。因此，在收貨人的配合下，貨物在到港后135天內(nèi)通常不會(huì)進(jìn)入拍賣程序，不過(guò)在此期間產(chǎn)生的滯港、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)等費(fèi)用難以避免。

對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期滯留港口或者無(wú)人提取的貨物，海關(guān)將作無(wú)貨主處理，有權(quán)拍賣此貨物，此時(shí)原進(jìn)口商為第一購(gòu)買人。

這為騙子創(chuàng)造了騙貨的條件。

騙子會(huì)先注冊(cè)一個(gè)土耳其的空頭公司，由該公司出面將中國(guó)出口的貨物騙到土耳其海關(guān)，故意拖延時(shí)間，導(dǎo)致最后海關(guān)拍賣，然后用很低的價(jià)格買進(jìn)，再高價(jià)賣出分贓。

又或者，在土耳其國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)情勢(shì)不穩(wěn)、貿(mào)易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大增的今天，原先誠(chéng)信的買家蒙受損失之后，會(huì)不會(huì)利用這個(gè)漏洞鋌而走險(xiǎn)？

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